Vortex Rain Check

Forecast: February 2024

Vortex Rain Insurance examines the effect that a strong El Nino will have on February's weather in various U.S. regions


February's outlook continues to be dominated by El Nino, which is still quite strong despite having peaked in December. The blend of 1998, 2010 and 2016 continues to be a good comparison to this year — those recent strong El Ninos were all consistent in decaying into neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) conditions by April/May, which matches current forecast expectations. Weaker recent El Ninos (2007, 2003, 1995) had decayed into neutral conditions by February/March, making them poor comparisons based on current expectations.

> Based on the established comparison years of 1998, 2010 and 2016, look for continued abnormally wet conditions across the southern tier and up the east coast throughout February.

> This projection also extends to California, as other forecast sources are suggesting wetter than normal conditions in California and across parts of the Southwest. 

> A wetter pattern reaches into southern parts of the Ohio Valley.

> Look for an exceptionally wet month of February in Florida — with fewer playable days projected than an average year. This could be particularly problematic for courses in South Florida, who typically see large round counts during the peak winter months. 

> Abnormally dry conditions become more likely from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, with the best chances for drier conditions in Michigan. For golf facilities that remain open for play, this may lead to a few extra playable days.

For information on Vortex Weather Insurance, visit VortexInsurance.com or contact Eric Anderson at 203.550.6150.